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Link Prediction in Graphs with Autoregressive Features

We consider the problem of link prediction in time-evolving graphs. We assume that certain graph features, such as the node degree, follow a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and we propose to use this information to improve the accuracy of prediction. Our strategy involves a joint optimization procedure over the space of adjacency matrices and VAR matrices which takes into account both sparsity and low-rank properties of the matrices. The analysis involves oracle inequalities that illustrate the trade-offs in the choice of smoothing parameters when modeling the joint effect of sparsity and low rank property. The estimate is computed efficiently using proximal methods through a generalized forward-backward algorithm.

Joint work with Emile Richard (CBIO Mines ParisTech, Inserm, Institut Curie) and Nicolas Vayatis (CMLA, ENS Cachan).


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